DILI, january 19, 2023 (TATOLI)—The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports the past eight years have been the warmest on record globally, fueled by steadily increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and heat accumulation, according to six leading international temperature data sets.
According to a report of WMO seen by Tatoli stated that the global average temperature in 2022 was around 1.15 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). 2022 is the 8th year in a row (2015-2022) in which annual global temperatures have reached at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels, according to all data sets compiled by the WMO.
“2015 to 2022 were at the eight warmest years on record. The probability – temporarily – of breaching the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit increases over time,” said the WMO report.
The persistence of a cooling La Niña event, now entering its third year, means that 2022 will not be the warmest year on record, but “only” the fifth or sixth warmest.
But this cooling effect will be short-lived and will not reverse the long-term warming trend caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the world’s atmosphere.
The WMO’s El Niño/La Niña update suggests around a 60% chance that La Niña will persist over January-March 2023, and should be followed by ENSO-neutral conditions (not El Niño or La Niña).
The 10-year average temperature for the period 2013-2022 is 1.14 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above the pre-industrial baseline of 1850-1900. This compares to 1.09°C from 2011 to 2020, as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report, and indicates that long-term warming is continuing.
“In 2022, we were facing several dramatic weather and disasters that are claiming far too many lives and livelihoods and undermining health, food, energy and water security and infrastructure. Large parts of Pakistan were hit by floods, with heavy economic losses and loss of life. Record-breaking heat waves have been observed in China, Europe, and North and South America. Prolonged drought in the Horn of Africa threatens a humanitarian catastrophe,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
Global warming and other long-term climate change trends are expected to continue due to record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Extreme heat waves, droughts, and catastrophic floods have affected millions of people and cost billions this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s Interim Global Climate report for 2022.
At the end of December, a severe storm hit most of North America. Strong winds, heavy snow, and low temperatures caused widespread disturbances in the east. Torrential rains, mountains of snow, and floods hit the area in the west.
“There is a need to increase preparedness for such extreme events and ensure that we meet the UN’s Early Warning for All targets in the next five years,” said Taalas.
“Currently only half of the 193 Members have proper early warning services, which leads to much higher economic and human losses. There are also large gaps in basic weather observations in Africa and island nations, which has a major negative impact on the quality of weather forecasts.”
The Paris Agreement seeks to contain the rise in global average temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. At 1.14 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), the global average temperature for the ten years 2013-2022 is already close to the lower limit of temperature rise the Treaty seeks to prevent Paris.
La Niña refers to a large-scale cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in tropical atmospheric circulation. It usually has the opposite impact on weather and climate as El Niño. La Niña has a temporary global cooling effect.
A final report with more updates on the State of the Global Climate in 2022 will be released and launched in April for Earth Day.
Journalist: José Belarmino De Sá
Editor: Nelia B.
