DILI, 04 october 2023 (TATOLI) – El Niño is here creating hotter, drier conditions with less rainfall than normal bringing risks to crops, livestock, and livelihoods across the country, that could intensify over the coming months, according to the Food Security Alert Special Bulletin Timor-Leste.
The Food Security Alert Special Bulletin Timor-Leste highlights the urgent food security challenges that the nation faces as a result of the current El Nino event.
Timor-Leste will face risks presented by El Nino in light of the country’s current levels of acute food insecurity and its reliance on rain-fed agriculture.
The entire territory of Timor-Leste is already showing signs of drought, based on the Ministry of Agriculture Livestock, Fisheries and Forestry (MALFF), MALFF, the National Directorate of Meteorology and Geophysics (NDMG) and FAO’s Combined Drought Index (CDI). This is due to the ongoing El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, which continue to strengthen and are forecasted to persist until early 2024. This will cause prolonged dry spells, negatively impacting agriculture output at regional and national levels.
Based on the latest (mid-September) update by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) El Niño conditions are estimated to have strengthened further, and with near certainty this situation will persist with moderate to strong intensity until at least march 2024
Based on the CDI report warning MALFF and the Civil Protection Authority (CPA) of Timor-Leste in collaboration with FAO are providing early warning messaging to farmers and other key stakeholders across Timor-Leste. In Baucau, Covalima, Liquica, and Oecusse and Viqueque training and action planning is being conducted for at-risk sucos on anticipatory strategies to manage agricultural drought and produce better agricultural outcomes in the coming months. Activities to improve water access ahead of the key growing period will be key to preventing agricultural losses for at-risk sucos.
Given that up to 22 percent (300,000 people) of the Timorese population is already grappling with severe food insecurity, the convergence of factors such as the El Niño phenomenon, escalating rice prices, and trade restrictions forebode a looming crisis of heightened and exacerbated hunger in the region.
Over the period the current El Niño is forecast to impact Timor-Leste, it is anticipated that at least 22 percent of the population (300,000 people) will be facing high acute food insecurity levels (IPC phase 3 and above). There are real concerns the number of people facing high acute food insecurity may be higher, as El Niño will likely worsen availability and access to food for the most vulnerable households.
“Current levels of food insecurity in Timor-Leste already impact 22 per cent of the population, affecting 300,000 people. This, compounded by successive years of flooding, the lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and escalating food prices both domestically and globally, means that the anticipated impacts of El Niño could plunge the population deeper into the throes of hunger. The time to act and mitigate the impacts of El Niño is now,” said Alba Cecilia Garzon Olivares, WFP Representative and Country Director.
It’s recalled that between july and september 2023, international rice prices surged, subsequently driving up the costs of rice within Timor-Leste. The retail prices of imported rice in the country have now escalated from USD 0.58 to USD 0.75 per kilogram, corresponding to USD 14.5 per 25kg bag in September 2022 and USD 18.75 in September 2023. This marks a substantial 29 percent increase. This steady climb in prices is progressively rendering rice unaffordable for impoverished families in Timor-Leste.
Timorese people depend heavily on imports of Indian rice. Compounding the surge in global rice prices, in July 2023, the Indian government introduced further measures aimed at stabilizing domestic food prices. These measures include a 20 percent export duty on non-basmati parboiled rice and the imposition of a minimum export price of USD 1,200 per tonne on basmati rice shipments. These measures may trigger a ripple effect in other nations, as they scramble to secure adequate rice supplies for their populations.
A rapid review of existing stock levels for rice indicates availabilities in the country may only cover just over one month of national rice consumption needs. It is crucial to procure rice and specialized nutritious food as soon as possible to prevent further deterioration of the nutritional and food security status of the poorest and most vulnerable Timorese families.
The last El Niño event in Timor-Leste was in 2015/16 and resulted in 78 percent of households (roughly 709,601 people) being affected by drought in Timor-Leste and 40.6 percent of households experiencing food shortages and falling into severe food insecurity (an estimated 363,759 people).
Based on the results of the Rapid Drought Impact Assessment carried out by MALFF after the last severe El Niño event (2015/16), insufficient rains led to drought, affecting 78 percent of households (about 122,345 families or 709,601 people9) across the country. The assessment also estimated that, at national level, from December 2015 to February/March 2016, 40.6 percent of households (some 62,717 families or about 363,759 people10) were experiencing food shortages and fell into severe food insecurity due to drought impacts.
The prevalence was significantly greater in the municipalities of Viqueque (53%) and Lautem (51%), and even more so in the off-grid areas of Dili (70%). The severity of food insecurity was found very different across sucos, with some having the totality of the population facing food insecurity (map 4). 11 The 2015/16 drought impacts on food security are particularly worrying, as the population had not yet reached the high levels of food insecurity recorded today.
The 2015/16 drought impacts on food security are particularly worrying, as the population had not yet reached the high levels of food insecurity recorded today.
Journalist: José Belarmino De Sá
Editor: Filomino Martins
