DILI, 25 september 2024 (TATOLI) – Timor-Leste’s economic growth momentum will continue in 2024–2025, though at a more modest pace than forecast in april 2024 due to lower government expenditure and weaker investment spending than previously expected, according to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2024 reports that robust private consumption, fueled by consumer credits, government transfers, personal remittances, and tourist arrivals should drive growth. However, the forecast has been revised down to 3.1% for 2024 and 3.9% for 2025 from the 3.4% and 4.1% projected in ADO April 2024, respectively, due to slower-than-expected budget spending.
“Ensuring investment project readiness, improving public procurement practices, and strengthening institutional capacity are essential for maximizing the positive impact of public capital investments on economic growth,” said ADB Country Director for Timor-Leste Stefania Dina. “To sustain robust economic growth beyond 2024, we must embrace public financial management reforms and strategic policy shifts. By optimizing development finance opportunities and protecting government resources, such as the Petroleum Fund, we can build a brighter future for Timor-Leste.”
Due to lower inflation in staple products and consumer durables and persistently low inflation in nontradables, average inflation will moderate to 3.4% in 2024, revised down slightly from the previous 3.5% forecast. The report’s 2.9% inflation forecast for 2025 remains unchanged from ADO April 2024. The current account deficits will remain large but slightly less than the previous forecasts due to lower imports of goods and services in line with slower budget spending.
Risks to Timor-Leste’s growth outlook stem from lower public capital spending, climate-related disasters, and the impact of external shocks and spillovers mainly associated with prolonged global geopolitical tensions on trade conditions and inflation.
ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.
Journalist: Camilio de Sousa
Editor: Filomeno Martins
