Nobel laureates warn of global economic risks from deglobalisation and supply chain disruptions
DÍLI, 25 August 2026 (TATOLI) — Nobel laureates James Robinson and Robert Merton have warned that deglobalisation, geopolitical conflicts and disruptions to global supply chains pose growing risks to the world economy.
The economists made the remarks during a session titled “Deglobalisation and the Challenges of Global Conflicts for the World Economy” at the Presidential Palace in Díli as part of the Science for Development Summit 2026.
Robinson said the growing backlash against globalisation in the United States was partly linked to rising inequality and declining real wages among workers with lower levels of education.
“If you don’t have a college degree, your wages are now lower than they were 50 years ago,” Robinson said.
He said globalisation and increased imports from China had contributed to the decline of US manufacturing, but were not the only factors behind weaker wages.
The spread of computers and other technologies had also played a significant role by replacing workers in lower-skilled jobs, he said.
Robinson said the backlash against globalisation reflected a combination of economic and political factors, including economic nationalism, identity concerns and immigration policies.
He also drew parallels with the Great Depression of the 1930s, when protectionist policies adopted by the United States triggered retaliatory trade measures from other countries.
Merton highlighted the risks created by the heavy concentration of global supply chains.
The pursuit of the lowest possible production costs had encouraged companies to concentrate manufacturing and sourcing in particular markets, leaving supply networks more exposed to wars, crises and other disruptions, he said.
“The lowest cost comes with a price: the risk that, for whatever reason, that supply chain will be interrupted,” Merton said.
However, he said deglobalisation was not occurring uniformly, particularly in international financial markets, where capital remained highly interconnected.
Merton said international diversification remained an important risk-management strategy.
“A globally diversified portfolio is much less risky, given the expected return, than concentrating the money in one country,” he said.
Merton said Timor-Leste’s integration into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could give the country an advantage as the global economy undergoes major changes.
As a small economy, Timor-Leste has considerable scope to expand economic activity through trade and regional integration, he said.
Greater access to the wider ASEAN market could create opportunities to increase exports, attract investment and support economic growth.
Nikolaus Turner, a senior representative of the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings Foundation, highlighted the role of science in bringing countries and communities together.
He recalled that the first Lindau meeting in 1951 was established to connect young German scientists with the international scientific community at a time when Germany remained politically isolated after World War II.
Today, the Lindau meetings bring together young researchers and Nobel laureates from different countries, regardless of nationality, gender or religion, Turner said.
“As long as you believe in science and its basic rules, this is the place where you can build connections,” he said.
Turner said a memorandum of understanding signed on Monday between Timor-Leste and the organisation would enable young Timorese scientists to participate in international Lindau meetings in Germany.
Researchers aged between 25 and 35 will be eligible to take part in the programmes, strengthening links between Timor-Leste’s scientific community and researchers and Nobel laureates from around the world.
Journalist: Afonso do Rosário
Editor: Isaura Lemos de Deus
TranslationL: Filomeno Martins
